Mexico’s economy grows 1.5% in the second quarter, outpacing the United States’ 0.4%
Mexico’s economy expanded 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period, according to INEGI’s preliminary GDP estimate released July 30, 2026 — the fastest quarterly pace since the fourth quarter of 2020. The Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) presented the figure alongside its second-quarter public finance report, attributing the rebound to a broad-based recovery across primary, industrial, and services activities following a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter.
Mexico’s economy and GDP growth reached every major sector
INEGI’s estimate showed services activities, which make up roughly two-thirds of GDP, rose 1.5% quarter-on-quarter. Industrial activities, more closely tied to foreign trade, increased 1.6% — their strongest quarterly gain in 17 quarters — while primary activities such as agriculture and livestock accelerated 3.3%, even though that sector represents only about 4% of total GDP.
SHCP Secretary Édgar Amador Zamora said the advance was not concentrated in a single sector, calling it evidence that Mexico’s economy had returned to a growth path after the moderation seen earlier in the year.
Analysts tie much of the gain to the World Cup
Banco Base chief economist Gabriela Siller estimated that roughly two-thirds of the quarter’s growth stemmed from the FIFA World Cup, which Mexico co-hosted starting June 11 and for which the country staged 13 matches. Siller said the boost concentrated in construction spending ahead of the tournament during April and May, along with a temporary rise in retail and services consumption tied to the event. Mexico’s Secretaría de Turismo estimated the tournament generated 65 billion pesos in economic activity from tourism, lodging, transportation, and related work.
Valdez Capital analysis director Carlos Hernández García said the result was not driven solely by the World Cup, pointing also to stronger performance in export-oriented manufacturing linked to demand for technology infrastructure and AI-related inputs. He added that the durability of the current pace will depend on how much of the tournament’s momentum carries into the second half of the year.
The result outpaced the U.S. economy
Mexico’s economy grew faster than the U.S. economy in the second quarter, as its quarterly growth exceeded that of the United States, its largest trading partner, whose economy grew 0.4% over the same period — below the 0.5% analysts had forecast, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. The department noted that net exports made a negative contribution to U.S. GDP, while personal consumption kept rising on a stable labor market and investment benefited largely from spending tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Former Consar president Carlos Ramírez said the rebound narrowed the gap between the two economies, though it did not close it, and that Mexico’s economy has yet to fully capitalize on the strength of U.S. growth elsewhere in the cycle.
What a broad-based rebound means for companies weighing Mexico
A quarter in which primary, industrial, and services activities all expanded together points to a recovery that extends beyond a single segment of the economy. The combination of firmer domestic consumption and continued momentum in export-linked industry could support demand for industrial space as companies assess expansion plans and production capacity.
For companies considering their next move in Mexico, this environment reinforces the importance of having the right infrastructure and location strategy in place. American Industries Group has spent more than 50 years helping companies establish and grow operations in Mexico, from site selection and shelter services to the development of industrial facilities. Schedule a call with our team to explore how current economic conditions may shape your next project in Mexico.
Sources: Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP), Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), U.S. Department of Commerce
